Thursday, May 04, 2006

Yahoo! Should Run Adsense

Google DOES have by far the largest group of advertisers and there is
no sign of Yahoo! catching up. Also Google's Adsense is far better at
maximising return on the pageview than Yahoo!'s Overture is. Yahoo! has
even publically admitted - that they will not catch up on Google. So
why don't they just go ahead and run Adsense? I am sure that they could
get to keep around 90% of the revenue and I am sure that Yahoo! revenue
would increase dramatically if they did. Adsense just is better
capitalisation than Overture.

Advantage - Yahoo! shareholders would get a lot better return on their

Disadvantage - Yahoo!'s pride would hurt, and probably stand in the way
of this happening

Microsoft Will Lose To Google

Great article really! Dealing with the fact that this is a new game with new rules. Microsoft needs speed and friends - and has neither. Speed what do you mean? Vista will come out in no more than a year from now. Well - lets see about that.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

The Reason Why Google Is Down: Big CAPEX

I read a great article called Capex Hits Big Techs by Cody Willard on He has a really good point and possible explanation to why Google is down - as is Microsoft. They are both really ramping up their spending on capital expenditure - hardware, infratructure buildings etc. And I remember that Eric Schmidt did point out in the Google Q1 statement that CAPEX would outgrow revenue for the rest of 2006. That of course reduces short term profit and can make some investors wary. However, I strongly believe that Google is investing in the right things and that these investments will pay of and keep Google ahead of the pack. Especially the idea of Google creating an alternative to the Internet is interesting. The more they grow (and they do a lot of that) the more reasonable the investment will be to them. If they can increase peoples use of Internet, they WILL increase their revenue. Its just a matter of time before the maths work out positively on this one and they will push ahead. Stay tuned for GoogleNet.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Google a bargain at $400

Ever since the day after Google reporting the record high 2006 Q1 the share has been trading down every single day - from $450 to now $400. Notice that this has been under small volume and therefore probably not as "bad" as it looks. There seem to be no apparent reason for this fall and the blogs and discussions boards (actually nice on Google Finance) also cry for a reason for this setback in the stock price.

Currently Google's EBITDA P/E is 29,7 only slightly higher than Yahoo!'s ditto at 26,1. It just does not make sense. Google by far is outgrowing both Yahoo! and MSN and should be traded at a larger premium. But then again - if you like bargains - I guess you have one now.

Today's story is Google complaining about Microsoft defaulting MSN Search in the new IE 7.0 browser - but Microsoft's defaulting of MSN in the browser has not stopped MSN from beeing a pathetic 3rd runner ever since it started out. I think Google can only rise from here!

Disclaimer: Buying stocks are full of risk - don't listen to me I could be very wrong yada yada yada..

Google EBITDA $1 Billion

For some reason Google did not report their EBITDA number - or at least for the first time I could not find it in their 2006 Q1 statement. I have found else where on the net, that it should be $1 billion. That is a pretty need number that gives them a yearly EBITDA growth on 83% versus Yahoo!'s EBITDA growth on a disappointing 26%. Why people still think that Yahoo!'s numbers where so great surprises me, because the numbers clearly show that Google is leaving Yahoo! seriously behind.

I expect Yahoo! to show yearly EBITDA growth going forward on 20%-30%, while Google probably will end up just north of 50% the next few years. Its still a high growth for the company, but obviously down from the previous EBITDA growth rates above 100%.

Added: This means that the growth from Q4 was 23% - where I was expecting 25%-30%.